Assessing the Zeitenwende

Angela Stent

Georgetown University

Dr. Angela Stent is director of the Center for Eurasian, Russian and East European Studies and professor of government and foreign service at Georgetown University. She is also a senior fellow (nonresident) at the Brookings Institution and cochairs its Hewett Forum on Post-Soviet Affairs. Dr. Stent’s experience also includes serving as national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia at the National Intelligence Council and serving on the Policy Planning Staff at the US Department of State. Dr. Stent’s academic work focuses on the triangular political and economic relationship between the United States, Russia, and Europe. Her latest book is The Limits of Partnership: US-Russian Relations in the Twenty-First Century (Princeton University Press, 2014).

Aylin Matlé

German Council on Foreign Relations

Aylin Matlé is a senior research fellow in the Center for Security and Defense at DGAP. Previously, she has served as the Deputy Head of the Konrad-Adenauer-Stiftung’s Israel office in Jerusalem.

Aylin Matlé holds a PhD from Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg. Her thesis “Drifting Apart of Transatlantic Security: The American Mark on NATO under Barack Obama” examined the impact of the Obama administration on allied and defense policies of European Alliance members. Dr. Matlé worked as a research associate at the chair of international relations and European politics at the Martin-Luther-Universität from 2014-2016. Prior to that, she completed an MA in War Studies at King’s College London in 2014. She holds a bachelor’s degree in Public Management and Governance from Zeppelin Universität, Friedrichshafen.

She was a Fellow in the American-German Situation Room in 2018. In addition, she participated in the AICGS project “A German-American Dialogue of the Next Generation: Global Responsibility, Joint Engagement” from 2018-2019.

Jeffrey Rathke

Jeff Rathke

President of AGI

Jeffrey Rathke is the President of the American Institute for Contemporary German Studies at the Johns Hopkins University in Washington, DC.

Prior to joining AICGS, Jeff was a senior fellow and deputy director of the Europe Program at CSIS, where his work focused on transatlantic relations and U.S. security and defense policy. Jeff joined CSIS in 2015 from the State Department, after a 24-year career as a Foreign Service Officer, dedicated primarily to U.S. relations with Europe. He was director of the State Department Press Office from 2014 to 2015, briefing the State Department press corps and managing the Department's engagement with U.S. print and electronic media. Jeff led the political section of the U.S. Embassy in Kuala Lumpur from 2011 to 2014. Prior to that, he was deputy chief of staff to the NATO Secretary General in Brussels. He also served in Berlin as minister-counselor for political affairs (2006–2009), his second tour of duty in Germany. His Washington assignments have included deputy director of the Office of European Security and Political Affairs and duty officer in the White House Situation Room and State Department Operations Center.

Mr. Rathke was a Weinberg Fellow at Princeton University (2003–2004), winning the Master’s in Public Policy Prize. He also served at U.S. Embassies in Dublin, Moscow, and Riga, which he helped open after the collapse of the Soviet Union. Mr. Rathke has been awarded national honors by Estonia, Latvia, and Lithuania, as well as several State Department awards. He holds an M.P.P. degree from Princeton University and B.A. and B.S. degrees from Cornell University. He speaks German, Russian, and Latvian.

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jrathke@aicgs.org

John R. Deni

U.S. Army War College

Dr. John R. Deni is a research professor of security studies at the U.S. Army War College, a nonresident senior fellow at the Atlantic Council, and a nonresident senior fellow at the NATO Defense College. His experience also includes spending a decade in Europe as a political adviser to senior U.S. military commanders and working in Washington as a supervising consultant for the U.S. Departments of Defense, Energy, and State. He holds a bachelor of arts degree in international relations (College of William & Mary), a master of arts degree in US foreign policy (American University), and a PhD in international affairs (The George Washington University). Dr. Deni is the author or editor of several books, monographs, articles, chapters, essays, and op-eds, which can be found at www.johnrdeni.com.

Loyle Campbell

German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)

Loyle Campbell is a research fellow at the DGAP Center for Climate and Foreign Policy. His work focuses on the geopolitics of the energy transition and energy security. Mr. Campbell’s experience also includes completing a foreign policy fellowship at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and serving as a Harold W. Rosenthal fellow on the United States House Select Committee on the Climate Crisis. Mr. Campbell holds a master’s degree in international energy from the Sciences Po Paris School of International Affairs and a bachelor of science degree in political science from the Vrije Universiteit Brussel.

Marina Henke

Hertie School

Dr. Marina E. Henke is a professor of international relations at the Hertie School in Berlin (Germany) and the director of the Hertie School Centre for International Security. She also holds the Helmut Schmidt Distinguished Visiting Professorship at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies in Washington, DC. Her research focuses on grand strategy, nuclear security, and European security and defense policy.

May-Britt Stumbaum

May-Britt U. Stumbaum

SPEAR Institute

PD Dr. habil. May-Britt U. Stumbaum is the director of the SPEAR Institute, a professor of security studies at the George C. Marshall European Center for Security Studies, and an associate researcher at the Center for Intelligence and Security Studies, Bundeswehr Universität Munich. She advises the EU, the German government, and corporations on geopolitical challenges in the greater Asian region. Her experience also includes serving as a team leader with the Asia-Pacific Research and Advice Network, the EU’s internal think tank on the Asia-Pacific region; the executive director of the China and Asia Security Programme at the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute; and a Fritz Thyssen fellow at Harvard University. Dr. Stumbaum serves as lieutenant colonel (reserve), German Air Force, and holds a habilitation degree (Bundeswehr Universität Munich), a PhD (Freie Universität Berlin), and a master of science degree (London School of Economics and Political Science).

Sharon De Cet

SPEAR Institute

Sharon De Cet is an associate fellow at the SPEAR Institute, working at the intersection of cybersecurity, geopolitics, technology, and regional dynamics. She specializes in China-EU relations and traditional and emerging security challenges in the Indo-Pacific region.

Sophia Besch

Carnegie Endowment for International Peace

Dr. Sophia Besch is a senior fellow in the Europe Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace in Washington, DC, and an adjunct lecturer at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. Her area of expertise is European defense policy. Dr. Besch’s experience also includes serving as a senior research fellow at the Centre for European Reform in London and Berlin.

Sophia Besch was a DAAD/AICGS Research Fellow from September to December 2021. During her fellowship at the AICGS, Ms. Besch analyzed the transatlantic dimension of the Defence Fund. She will examine how U.S. government and industry actors perceived the EU’s creation of the Fund and what role the defense relationship with the United States played in member-states' deliberations. This will eventually allow her to draw policy-relevant conclusions about the Fund’s implications for defense cooperation between the United States and Europe.

The DAAD/AICGS Research Fellowship is supported by the DAAD with funds from the Federal Foreign Office.

Theresa Lütkefend

Atlantic Council

Theresa Lütkefend is an assistant director in the Atlantic Council’s Forward Defense program, where she leads the initiative’s work on defense strategy and military operations. Originally from Germany, Ms. Luetkefend’s experience also includes working at the Berlin-based Global Public Policy Institute on a variety of security-related issues and spending several months at the UN Secretariat in New York. Ms. Luetkefend holds master’s degrees in Russian and East European studies from the University of Oxford and in international relations with a focus on strategic studies from the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. She holds a bachelor’s degree in social sciences from the Humboldt University of Berlin.

Tim Bosch

German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP)

Mr. Tim Bosch is a research fellow with the Center for Climate and Foreign Policy at the German Council on Foreign Relations (DGAP). He holds a bachelor’s degree in international relations from Technische Universität Dresden and a master’s degree in international security from Sciences Po Paris. At DGAP, Mr. Bosch’s work includes contributing to and publishing on the science-policy interface with a focus on international climate policy and Germany’s role in this field. As a research fellow, his areas of interest include the security implications of climate change and the geopolitical challenges arising from the green transition.

Implications for Germany, the United States, and Transatlantic Security

The Zeitenwende marks a major turning point in German security policy. Fundamental shifts in Germany’s energy-security strategy, policies on security cooperation, conventional military strength, approach toward Russia, and more have unfolded since February 2022. In many respects, these changes remain works in progress. Nonetheless, the decisions and actions triggered in Berlin by Russia’s devastating expansion of its war against Ukraine already appear transformative in many ways.

The changes in German security policy have had broad-based and wide-ranging implications. In particular, because German-American relations lie at the heart of the broader transatlantic relationship, when Germany promulgates a dramatic shift in strategy or policy, the implications stretch far beyond Berlin and indeed across the Atlantic. Hence, the Zeitenwende matters greatly for American policymakers as well as those across the rest of NATO and those in the EU.

Will the changes brought about by the Zeitenwende endure and be far-reaching enough to strengthen German and European deterrence and defense? The answer remains unclear. Nonetheless, assessing whether and how the Zeitenwende has met expectations and what this all means for American policymakers is particularly timely and important. The recent election in the United States and the election in Germany mean significant change in the German-American relationship may be on the horizon. Building on the successes of the Zeitenwende and identifying, correcting, or mitigating its shortcomings could provide a road map of sorts to aid Berlin and Washington in navigating the way ahead. For this reason, the U.S. Army War College is pleased to partner with Johns Hopkins University’s American-German Institute to publish this collection of insightful, forward-looking essays.


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The views expressed are those of the author(s) alone. They do not necessarily reflect the views of the American-German Institute.