Selling the Past
How Populists Turn Nostalgia into Political Gain
Speaker:
Dr. Simon Morris-Lange, DAAD/AGI Research Fellow, American-German Institute; Head of Research, Allianz Foundation
Moderator:
Dr. Eric Langenbacher, Senior Fellow and Director of the Society, Culture, & Politics Program, American-German Institute
Populist mobilization is often associated with anti-elite rhetoric, fearmongering, and xenophobia. But appeals to return society to an idealized, often only vaguely defined past can be just as powerful. They can offer a subtler way to legitimize these narratives, reaching audiences who may otherwise not respond to more overt forms of populist messaging.
Across Europe—particularly on the far-right—populist movements have increasingly tapped into this potential. Many of them pair nostalgic appeals with radical tactics, from online trolling and disinformation to hate and violence, aimed at challenging the political status quo and pushing society toward an idealized past. But how widely does this form of mobilization resonate, and who is most susceptible to it?
This webinar presents the first full results of a representative public opinion study conducted across France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain—the EU’s five largest countries, together home to nearly two-thirds of its population. At the heart of the survey is a novel diagnostic tool designed to measure individual susceptibility to the above combination of retrograde messaging and radical mobilization tactics. The tool was co-developed by Dr. Morris-Lange with political scientists at the WZB Social Science Center Berlin and the SINUS Institute, with support from GESIS – Leibniz Institute for the Social Sciences.
Note:
Due to technical difficulties, not all slides in the speaker’s presentation were recorded. As a result, the PowerPoint slides have been made available below.
Event Summary
Nostalgia as a Political Strategy
The success of populist leaders is often attributed to several factors, including political distrust/anti-elite sentiment, authoritarian appeals, the fear of economic deprivation, and nativism. Yet, one shared feature stands out across populist movements: a glorification of the past. Through strategic ‘cherry-picking’ and blurred historical narratives, populist leaders seek to use nostalgia to ‘sell’ an idealized history that serves as an alternative to traditional politics, establishing a backlash political movement. This requires supporters to embrace retrograde objectives and nostalgic appeals all while condoning the extraordinary claims and tactics of the populist leader. Such tactics frequently include the spread of disinformation, provocative messaging, online trolling, and threats to dismantle democratic institutions.
Susceptibility to this form of political mobilization, however, is a process with different stages, not a fixed sequential trajectory. Using survey data from participants across France, Germany, Italy, Poland, and Spain, the backlash affinity scale identifies political deprivation as the initial driver, followed by retrograde aspirations, which can escalate into holding regressive values and condoning extraordinary political tactics. Of the European participants surveyed, approximately 50 percent demonstrated political susceptibility to blurred nostalgia (they believed the past was better, but the values are not necessarily regressive), particularly among older generations. 32 percent expressed an affinity for nostalgic regressive values, with men being more likely to fall in this category than women. While 8 percent of participants condoned radical political tactics, 19 percent partially agreed with radical tactics; lonely, younger millennial men largely comprised this category. Further analyses suggest that retrograde aspirations greatly correlate with populist, chauvinist, and xenophobic views, with non-regressive nostalgia also acting as a possible entry point for such attitudes.
What about the United States?
In a survey of over 20,000 Americans, the majority of respondents believed U.S. democracy is in decline. 60 percent believed U.S. democracy was stronger fifty years ago, and 45 percent expect it to become weaker in fifty years. This view of democratic decay was more common among older and highly educated respondents.
Both the Democrats and Republicans have used nostalgia to advance anti-elite and country-in-decline narratives. However, while Democrats evoke nostalgia for the quality of infrastructure, education, economy, and the welfare state, Republicans generally emphasize previous national values and government integrity, excluding Donald Trump’s 2016 decidedly regressive shift. The political use of nostalgia is less about partisan division and more about challengers using nostalgia as a tool to blame the incumbent for alleged national decline.
Additionally, the pairing of nostalgia and extraordinary tactics is often exercised by right-wing, authoritarian politicians. In contrast, mainstream institutions and American Democrats do not traditionally engage in this pairing, although it is conceivable.
Refinement of Backlash Scale
To better understand susceptibility to backlash political movements, there are opportunities to refine the first iteration of the backlash affinity scale to strengthen the tool’s conceptual scope and address political and socioeconomic gaps in participant responses. First, considering the participants’ longing for a prior social or economic condition, rather than only political nostalgia, would enhance retrograde aspirational analysis. Second, questions on measuring regressive values should be rephrased to be less descriptive and instead more deliberate at teasing out participants’ personal values. Third, the research should examine respondent support for hollowing out democratic institutions, an extraordinary tactic used by radical political leaders yet not featured in the research, which was more interested in shedding light on political challengers rather than incumbents. Lastly, assessing participants’ authoritarian attitudes and expectations of their country’s future would enhance one’s understanding of political nostalgia and radical tactics.
Discussion
Notably, the period Eastern and Central European voters tend to idealize the most is the 1990s, an era characterized by widespread optimism for joining the “European Family” through the EU accession process. In former communist states, such as Poland, people were more likely to remember being particularly optimistic during this period.
Paradoxically, of the 32 percent of surveyed Europeans who favor a regressive past society, roughly half also show great support for ambitious social and ecological transformation efforts, raising questions about who should benefit from “the good future.”
When it comes to far-right mobilization, migration also serves as a major theme. Stemming from the notion of elite abandonment, during in-person interviews and focus groups, far-right voters were found to associate readily—and without specific prompting—migration with notions of at-home insecurity, welfare fraud, and a destabilizing economic state.
Plans to expand the research include an investigation of social nostalgia, as well as knowledge sharing with European decision-makers conducted through civil society partners.
This event is supported by the DAAD with funds from the Federal Foreign Office.
