The 2024 Surprising French Parliamentary Elections

Francesca Vassallo

University of Southern Maine

Dr. Francesca Vassallo is a Professor of Political Science in the Political Science Department at the University of Southern Maine. Her research interests and publications have focused on conventional and unconventional political behavior, French and European politics, European public opinion, U.S.-EU relations, and protest action. In addition to journal articles and book chapters, her book France, Social Capital and Political Activism (Palgrave) came out in 2010. She has been the guest editor of special issues of the journals PS: Political Science & Politics, Partecipazione e Conflitto, and German Politics and Society. She is currently working on an edited volume on Youth Political Action Worldwide and a book on France in the European Union. She was awarded a visiting fellowship from the Centre for European Studies of the Australian National University (2015), a visiting research position at the Center for the Study of Democracy of the University of California Irvine (2016), and an Europa Policy Lab Fellowship from the Centre for European Studies of the Australian National University (2018-9). She has lectured and given presentations in her field of research at universities, public opinion forums, and government agencies in many countries, from North America to Europe and Australia.

Professor Vassallo received her PhD in Government from Georgetown University (2002), her MA in German and European Studies from Georgetown University (2000), her MA in International Affairs from American University (1996), and her BA in Political Science from the University of Padoa (Italy) (1993).

Prologue

On the night of June 9, 2024, after exit polls for the European Parliament elections predicted a substantial victory for the National Rally (Rassemblement National) party (31.37 percent of the national votes), French President Emmanuel Macron announced his decision to dissolve the National Assembly and call for snap elections. The predicted victory of the extreme-right party in the recent European elections turned out to be the beginning of many surprises in French politics over a period of four weeks. With national elections set for June 30 and July 7, all parties started a new campaign to win seats in parliament and possibly take power away from the presidential party (formerly La République en Marche, now Renaissance) and his allies (the Ensemble coalition). New national elections so soon after European elections stunned both French citizens and European allies.

The German Chancellor Olaf Scholz was in a worse position than President Macron after the European elections: the dominant governmental coalition party, Social Democrats (SPD), came in third with an abysmal 13.9 percent of the vote, behind the center right Christian Democrats (CDU/CSU, 30 percent) and far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD, 15.9 percent). The French presidential alliance (Ensemble) received 14.6 percent of the vote, second behind the extreme right. Yet, Macron challenged the extreme-right movement of Marine Le Pen, despite domestic and international fears of a possible far-right government in France. Previous French presidents had called for snap elections at times when voters expressed disappointment in their sitting government. The last time a snap election took place in France, President Jacques Chirac ended up losing the gamble and handing the majority in parliament to the left coalition, for the longest cohabitation to date (1997-2002). The fear in France and abroad was more serious than a simple new cohabitation, a possible cohabitation with the far right in government was unacceptable.

French presidents do not always get it right, but Macron had proven himself as an efficient gambler earlier in his relatively short political career. He quit the left coalition government in 2016 to form his own movement—later party—to go on to win the presidential elections in 2017. He has now defeated the extreme right candidate Marine Le Pen twice in a second round presidential election (2017 and 2022), winning his second (and final) presidential term. So far, part of his political life has been facing (and defeating) the far right in France. His personal decision for quick parliamentary elections challenging the European results of the Rassemblement National was no riskier than other political gambles to him. He strongly believes that French citizens remain very wary of the French fascist Vichy past and that all parties but the extreme right support a French Republic that is founded on human rights and freedoms and fighting nationalism, fascism, and racism of all sorts. The so-called “cordon sanitaire,”[1] often mentioned in French politics, is expected to protect France from an electoral victory of the extreme right of Marine Le Pen and National Rally party president Jordan Bardella. The 2024 two rounds of parliamentary voting in part offered surprises and in part confirmed national expectations of an anti-extreme right, republican-front coalition. Yet, the surprises continued during and after the actual voting.

Campaigns, Expectations, and Surprises

All three major political blocs in the country were ready for surprise elections. Political programs from the European elections were mostly adapted to fit the national context, with typical promises from each of the three blocs.

The newly formed leftist political bloc, the New Popular Front (Nouveau Front Populaire), rallied immediately in the hopes of stopping a possible extreme-right government from coming to power. The France Unbowed (La France Insoumise), Socialist Party, Greens, and Communist Party joined forces with a stereotypical leftist program. Economic populist measures included reindustrialization of the country to create new jobs, suspension of EU free trade agreements to end disloyal trade practices and protect French farmers from unfair competition, and expansion of energy transition toward more renewable energy sources. In foreign policy, the leftist bloc aimed to support both Ukraine and Gaza more equally, with a stronger commitment for a cease fire. The most well-known name on the left was the leader of the France Unbowed party (but not necessarily prime minister nominee[2]) Jean-Luc Mélenchon. At the age of 72 and after a long time in politics at the margin of any political influence, Mélenchon had the possibility to finally win power and implement many of the policies the French left supported.

The bloc on the opposite side of the spectrum, on the extreme right, was composed of mostly the National Rally, with few allies from a schism in the center-right party, Les Républicains.[3] The far-right political program has somewhat softened over the last few years (no more promises of Frexit, for instance), nevertheless its main principles remain unchanged. For example, a renewed commitment to a “national priority” in discussions on immigration and economic protection. Immigrants should not be able to benefit from the same social programs of French citizens, and children of immigrants should not be French citizens automatically due to their birth on French soil. The bloc directly opposed the program of the left as an abomination against French values and traditions. Economic populism echoed in the promises of the far right as well: lower VAT on gasoline as well as reduced financial contributions to the EU and national autonomy on energy prices. The extreme right program equally criticized current environmental policies that are punitive toward French farmers and the national economy. In the realm of foreign policy, the National Rally stands against EU enlargement and in favor of a strong national and military defense, separate from any EU security agreement. In general, the French far right supports the primacy of French laws over EU law, a violation of EU treaties.

The presidential, centrist bloc, rallied by the young Prime Minister Gabriel Attal (37), endorsed a center-right policy on defense and security with a strong international commitment in the EU and NATO through expansion of France’s military budget and support to Ukraine. In line with the work as a presidential majority, the bloc supported the EU Green Pact, further reduction of gas emissions, and made promises of lower energy costs planned for the next winter. On the top issue of immigration, the centrist bloc proposed a stronger immigration selection using advanced control at EU borders, detention centers outside of the EU, and access to qualified immigration visa programs.

Both rounds of the elections delivered electoral surprises in different ways. The turnout in the first round was 66.71 percent, the highest since the 1997 first round of parliamentary elections.[4] The second round of parliamentary elections just a week later confirmed the popular interest in the electoral contest with a similar turnout of 66.63 percent, about 20 points higher than in the previous second round voting in 2022 (46.23 percent). French citizens seemed to approve of President Macron’s decision to let them decide who would govern France. Macron’s surprise may have made sense after all.

The actual results of the first round delivered the second surprise in the elections: the far-right party received 33.15 percent of the vote, the largest number of all blocs, and managed to elect 37 candidates in the first round. The left bloc gained 32 seats directly from the first round voting, where it received 27.99 percent of the national votes. Macron’s bloc only managed to elect 2 candidates directly in the first round, when it obtained 21.27 percent of the votes. The president’s gamble certainly did not pay off for his own coalition. French voters, politicians, and European allies were all equally shocked by the far-right electoral results. The left and center blocs immediately denounced the political program of Marine Le Pen and worked to undermine the chances of an extreme right government majority in France. In preparation for the second round of the elections, 224 candidates from the left and center blocs withdrew in districts where multiple candidates on the second round ballot could have split the votes and helped a Rassemblement National candidate. For instance, former French President and socialist candidate François Hollande won his seat in parliament in the second round by defeating a center right and extreme right candidates in the same district. Votes from the right split between the two candidates, whereas votes from the center and left converged to elect the former president.

Macron’s gamble paid off to some extent: there was a national rallying against the extreme right.

The anti-extreme right front worked very well in the second round. Contrary to expectations from the first round voting, French citizens showed up at the polls to block the far right, which came in third. The left and the center performed better than in the first round. In the end, the presidential coalition was the only one among the three main blocs to have lost seats in parliament. Ensemble went from 250 to 163; the leftist bloc increased its parliamentary presence from 131 to 180. The extreme right surged to its highest number of members in the National Assembly ever: 143 (up from 89). The last surprise from the actual elections was the lack of any clear majority that could govern the country. A coalition needs at least 289 members to pass legislation, and none of the three blocs was close to any majority. It was clear that Macron had accidentally engineered the possibility of a new cohabitation, but which one?

Epilogue

After two major elections, it is still not clear where France stands politically. On one side, Macron’s gamble paid off to some extent: there was a national rallying against the extreme right, something French citizens were mostly expecting. On the other side, Macron’s party slid to second place, behind the new political bloc on the left and slightly ahead of the Rassemblement National. The centrist party is the only major bloc to have lost seats in the election, but this was not a surprise to anyone. The final surprise in these surprising elections is the reality over a week after the second round results. No new government has been formed as no bloc has a clear majority. Even more problematic, no bloc has any intention to form a coalition to control a majority of seats in the National Assembly. Mathematically, a cross-bloc coalition is the easiest majority, but cross vetoes from the center right and right against the extreme left, and vice versa, have prevented any negotiation from happening. Macron has even published an editorial in regional newspapers to encourage a broader coalition from the center left to the center right, but most political forces are opposed. Yet, the election of the speaker in the new legislature Yael Braun-Pivet (the same person from Macron’s Renaissance party who held the position before the dissolution of the National Assembly), with the help from the center-right and a third round of voting after two votes with no absolute majority winner, added to Macron’s history of successful gambles.[5] His own party lost seats in the lower house, but the same party remains in control of the speaker’s position.

Political experts are now speculating whether the current caretaker government of Prime Minister Attal will continue or whether a new technocratic cabinet will be formed to govern the country for a while. Macron has few options: 1) wait and see whether political frustration helps his calls for a broader coalition; 2) allow for a minority government to form in hopes of a later coalition; or 3) prepare his party for a new gamble with new snap elections after a year.[6]

At a time when most governments in Europe are political coalitions, the inability of the French parties to conclude successful negotiations stands out. As Germany has demonstrated often, political coalitions in government allow for national stability and political accomplishments. Although problematic for the stability of France, the current gridlock can actually reinforce the position of the president, whose term will not end until 2027. Among all the surprises from the parliamentary elections, presidential stability remains the only constant, something de Gaulle foresaw when the French Fifth Republic political system was created.

[1] A so-called protective barrier that French parties will always participate in to stop the far right at the polls.

[2] Finally, on July12, five days after the second round, the party presented Huguette Bello as its proposed nomination for the prime minister position within the left coalition. The socialist party instead seems keen to support one of its own: Olivier Faure.

[3] The leader of the French center-right party, Éric Ciotti, expressed support for a strategic alliance with the extreme right party right before the elections. He was promptly removed from his position in the party.

[4] The recent EU elections recorded a lower turnout, with only 51.49 percent.

[5] The Rassemblement National did not manage to win any of the deputy speaker positions in the National Assembly, after an unusual second election for the positions due to a first election tainted with ballot mishandling.

[6] The French constitution allows the French president to call for new elections only once a year.