The Collapse of the Traffic Light Coalition and its Consequences

Panelists:
Frank Decker, Professor, Institut für Politische Wissenschaft und Soziologie, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn
Matthias Dilling, Assistant Professor in Political Science and Qualitative Methods, Co-convenor German Politics Specialist Group, UK Political Studies Association, Department of Political Science, Trinity College Dublin
Jana Faus, Managing Director, pollytix

Moderator:
Eric Langenbacher, Senior Fellow and Director of the Society, Culture & Politics Program, AGI

The traffic light coalition of Social Democrats, Greens, and Liberals dramatically collapsed in November 2024, not even three years after it came to power. Soon thereafter, Chancellor Olaf Scholz called for a formal vote of confidence on December 16 and scheduled new elections for February 23, 2025. Although it is relatively clear that the CDU/CSU will come in first and thus head the next coalition, there are numerous uncertainties with several parties possibly missing the electoral threshold and the performance of the right-wing (AfD) and left-wing (BSW) populists difficult to predict. This webinar brings together three leading experts to examine the reasons for the collapse of the out-going coalition, the state of party competition two months before the election, and what likely outcomes will prevail.

Frank Decker is a professor in the Institut für Politische Wissenschaft und Soziologie of Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn in Germany. His main interests focus on problems of institutional reforms in Western democracies, party systems and right-wing populism. Recent publications include Politik in stürmischer Zeit (Bonn 2023, co-written with Eckhard Jesse and Roland Sturm), Die deutsche Demokratie (Bonn 2022), Aufstand der Außenseiter (Baden-Baden 2022, co-edited with Bernd Henningsen, Marcel Lewandowsky and Philipp Adorf) and Baustellen der Demokratie (Bonn 2021).

Matthias Dilling (Ph.D. Oxford) is an assistant professor in political science at Trinity College Dublin. His research investigates why and how political parties change and adapt, with a special focus on the center and far right in Western Europe in general and Germany in particular. He is the author of Parties under Pressure. The Politics of Factions and Party Adaptation (published with University of Chicago Press in 2024) and of sole and co-authored articles in, among others, the British Journal of Political Science, Political Research Quarterly, Political Studies Review, German Politics and Society, and Social Science History.

Jana Faus is co-founder and managing director of pollytix strategic research, a Berlin based research and consulting agency focusing on polling and issue management. She has 20 years of experience in polling, political consulting and strategy. She has published numerous studies on public opinion, society and election campaigns and regularly comments on current affairs in newspapers, podcasts as well as television and radio broadcasts.

This event will convene via Zoom. Please contact AGI Program Coordinator Mr. Jack Fornasiero at jfornasiero@aicgs.org with any questions.

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This event is supported with funds from The Harry and Helen Gray Humanities Program.