What Now?

Lucas Holloway

Halle Foundation/AGI Intern

Lucas Holloway is a Halle Foundation research intern at AGI in spring 2025. Originally from Savannah, Georgia, he a senior at Johns Hopkins University in Baltimore, Maryland, where he is pursuing a dual Bachelor of Arts in International Relations and Economics. In addition, Mr. Holloway spent a semester abroad in Berlin, Germany, last spring, gaining firsthand experience on the importance of U.S. strategic and socioeconomic ties with our European allies.

Before joining AGI, Mr. Holloway was a legislative intern for Congresswoman Debbie Wasserman Schultz on Capitol Hill, developing expertise in public policy work, constituent services, and the American legislative process. At Johns Hopkins, he was also president of the Hopkins Lecture Series, where he invited experts to speak to the Baltimore community about domestic and international issues.

Mr. Holloway’s research interests at AGI include German politics and elections, transatlantic diplomacy, and global economic trends.

Examining the Uncertain Future of Syrian Refugees in the Aftermath of Syria’s Civil War

Like so many impacted by the conflict, Syrians in Germany reacted to the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime last December with a mix of shock and jubilation, celebrating the end of a regime that had terrorized their homeland for the last sixty years. This conclusion to the Syrian Civil War came seemingly out of nowhere, with years of stalemate suddenly giving way to a rapid, two-week rebel offensive that ended with rebel forces taking over Damascus and Assad fleeing the country on December 7. The German government, along with the rest of the international community, was quick to welcome this fortuitous change in events, with German Chancellor Olaf Scholz remarking that Assad’s fall was “good news” while offering assistance to the incoming government to help provide needed stability and freedoms.

However, not all reactions in Germany were so magnanimous. In the days following the liberation of Syria, Deputy Chair of the Christian Democrats (CDU) Jens Spahn suggested on German TV that this event provided a potential opportunity for Syrian refugees to go back home using chartered planes from the German government. Members of the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) went even further, with party leader Alice Weidel posting online that, “Anyone in Germany who celebrates ‘free Syria’ evidently no longer has any reason to flee. They should return to Syria immediately.” In addition, a local AfD branch in Karlsruhe shocked locals when they mailed 30,000 flyers shaped like plane tickets, stating that refugees must be “remigrated” out of Germany to save the country. Finally, on December 9, the Federal Office for Migration and Refugees (BAMF) suspended all asylum processing for Syrian citizens, explaining that the unpredictable political situation in Syria made it too difficult to make concrete asylum decisions.

Thus, while Syrians across Germany who had suffered under the Assad regime initially celebrated, many now fear that their stable lives in Germany may soon come to an unwanted end. Indeed, in the decade since Angela Merkel’s “open-door” policy, hundreds of thousands of Syrian refugees have embraced Germany and have integrated deeply into the nation’s social fabric. To force them out may prove more challenging than expected, potentially causing greater economic hardship and collective suffering than their opponents are prepared to handle.

Syrians in Germany Since the Civil War

The situation for Syrian refugees in Germany today is markedly different from when they first entered the country following Merkel’s famous “Wir schaffen das” declaration in 2015. Currently, over 973,000 Syrian nationals call Germany home, according to the German Federal Statistical Office, with some 712,000 of them having been granted refugee status. In addition, more than 160,000 Syrians have German citizenship, and Syrians constituted the largest group of naturalized citizens in 2023. Overall, despite the initial challenges of adapting to a new country and culture after fleeing their war-torn homes, many Syrian refugees have successfully built new lives for themselves in Germany and now constitute an integral part of the German socio-economic landscape.

Take, for example, the German healthcare system, where Syrian workers play a particularly important role. Thanks to specialized training programs, today there are over 6,000 doctors and thousands more nurses from Syria working in Germany, making up the single largest group of foreign practitioners and specialists. Well-educated Syrians help staff other critical sectors as well, including automotive engineering, where there are over 4,000 Syrians employed in the industry, according to the  German Economic Institute (IW). Many more are self-employed, work in education, or help construction projects (just to name a few), serving as a crucial boost in an otherwise stagnating workforce. Recent studies support these findings, noting that Syrians who have lived in Germany for at least six years tend to have higher levels of education and good employment rates, especially among men.

German Domestic Controversy

Even so, despite these valuable economic contributions, some German politicians and journalists have highlighted ongoing challenges with Syrian integration since 2015. For example, conservative commentators from Bild in 2023 lamented that—after most Syrian migrants had been in Germany for eight years—over 55 percent of Syrians reportedly still received government benefits, compared to just 5 percent of German citizens. Politicians on the far right, like Joana Cotar, quickly voiced their anger, inflaming the debate by suggesting that Germany’s standard of living was declining because public benefits were going to migrants, including some who did not have residence permits. In response, critics countered that, in addition to the fact that the statistics were somewhat misleading, higher unemployment rates among refugees were to be expected as they learned German and still adhered to more traditional gender roles at home. A lack of recognition for foreign qualifications and lengthy work permit procedures are other significant obstacles to employment, often requiring highly educated Syrians to spend months or even years retraining in German-approved programs before they can join the labor market.

Another source of political controversy is the allegedly high crime rates among refugees from countries in the Middle East, particularly among young men. According to a study by the Federal Criminal Police Office (BKA), refugees commit a larger share of crimes relative to their population size, with offenses being especially prevalent among men (86.4 percent of all crimes by migrants) under 30 (57.7 percent). To put this into perspective: while migrants make up 3 percent of Germany’s 83 million residents (approximately 2.9 million people), they accounted for about 9 percent of all criminal suspects in 2022—at least triple their proportion of the population. Indeed, a fierce debate erupted across Germany last year after a 20-year-old German man was reportedly bludgeoned to death by an 18-year-old Syrian in Bad Oeynhausen. Following this murder, Minister-President of North Rhine-Westphalia Hendrik Wüst, along with Chancellor Scholz, called for the deportation of Syrian immigrants who committed capital crimes in Germany. Yet, it is worth noting that the same BKA study found Syrian refugees to be less likely to commit crimes than immigrants from other countries (around 34.1 percent of refugees were Syrians while they committed only 20.7 percent of all migrant crime in 2021) and that immigrants, in general, were no more statistically prone to violence than their German counterparts once controlled for age, income, and location.

Unsavory Consequences of Mass Deportation

Even in the years leading up to Assad’s sudden fall, Germany was already divided over how to handle the hundreds of thousands of refugees who had entered and rebuilt their lives in the country. Yet, the sudden end to the Syrian Civil War, compounded by the fact that Germany was already going through a tumultuous election season, pushed the issue to the forefront of German politics, fueling calls for the expulsion of Syrians from Germany by the AfD and other German politicians last December. Although these threats have subsided somewhat in the weeks following the 2025 German election, as the Bundestag focuses on finalizing coalition negotiations and implementing its landmark defense and infrastructure bill, it may only be a matter of time before attention shifts back to the Syrian issue and a mass deportation program is set into motion. In light of this possibility, it is critical to assess whether such a policy would truly serve Germany’s best interests or worsen existing economic challenges during a time of great domestic and international uncertainty.

First, some of the reputed potential benefits. If implemented correctly, there may very well be law and order improvements stemming from a broad-base deportation program—particularly if violent offenders are singled out first and sent back to Syria, as already mandated in existing EU policy. Additionally, if a significant number of Syrian refugees, particularly young men, remain unable to join the German workforce, their deportation could ease the strain on Germany’s increasingly bloated welfare system. This could allow billions of existing funds to be redirected toward supporting skilled Syrian workers who have demonstrated a willingness to integrate and contribute to German society, helping ease their path to eventual German citizenship.

However, these supposed benefits are oftentimes based on unrealistic assumptions or even misinformation that does not accurately reflect the facts on the ground in Germany. For instance, as already mentioned, Syrian migrants overall commit fewer crimes than other immigrant groups, irrespective of the fears stoked by high-profile attacks. Furthermore, their higher unemployment rates could be better explained by cultural and logistical barriers (challenges that are likely to diminish over time) rather than a fundamental unwillingness to integrate, thereby undermining the justification for their removal.

In addition, domestic sentiment is tilting toward not merely targeted deportations, but the mass removal of migrant groups like Syrians from Germany. Beyond the questionable legality and morality of such a move, mass deportations would be disastrous for Germany’s already critically understaffed labor market—particularly in healthcare, where Syrian doctors and nurses play an outsized role. Forcing them to leave could lead to the closure of medical offices, longer wait times for essential procedures, and increased strain on an already overburdened healthcare system, especially in rural areas. Companies across other sectors, from construction to the Deutsche Bahn, have a growing reliance on skilled Syrian workers as well, an economic dependence that will only deepen as Germany’s workforce continues to age out and retire.

Given these realities, it would be reckless for German politicians to give in to anti-immigrant sentiment and hastily implement mass deportations without fully considering the socioeconomic consequences of such a knee-jerk reaction. A measured approach is necessary—one that acknowledges the contributions of those who hope to continue building their lives in Germany while at the same time supporting those who wish to return and help rebuild Syria after sixty long years of brutal repression.