Memo for Merz

Michael Rühle

Until his retirement in August 2023, Michael Rühle headed the Climate and Energy Security Section in NATO’s Emerging Security Challenges Division. For several years, this position also included the development of NATO’s response to hybrid threats.

Previously he was Head, Speechwriting, in NATO’s Political Affairs Division, and Senior Political Advisor in the NATO Secretary General’s Policy Planning Unit. In these positions, he wrote speeches and articles for six Secretaries General and other high-ranking NATO officials.

Before joining NATO's International Staff in 1991, he worked at the Konrad-Adenauer-Foundation in Sankt Augustin, Germany, and was a Visiting Fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), in Washington, DC.

He holds an MA in international relations from the University of Bonn. He has published numerous articles and book chapters on transatlantic security issues, including in International Affairs (Chatham House), Parameters, Politico, and NATO Review. He also co-authored a book on missile defense and a monograph on nuclear deterrence.

Mr Rühle is a frequent speaker on NATO affairs. He is an Honorary Ancien of the NATO Defense College and a recipient of the Star of Lithuanian Diplomacy and the Bene Merito Medal bestowed by the Republic of Poland.

Safeguarding German Security in a Turbulent World

Dear Friedrich Merz,

Congratulations on your election victory. Your party scored slightly lower than expected, but the CDU/CSU once again emerged as Germany’s largest conservative-centrist party.

That said, you are fully aware of the difficult situation you are inheriting. You are stuck with the Social Democratic Party, which was almost cut in half in the elections, yet stubbornly clings to its ideals of social welfare and drove a hard bargain in the coalition talks to preserve them. Hence, you are now supposed to lead a coalition government with a party whose agenda is clashing with your stated ambition to make Germany fit for the future.

Since the Germans want to have their cake and eat it, you are caught in a dilemma: you are expected to move the country out of its economic and security crisis without imposing hardships on a society that has grown accustomed to the all-encompassing welfare state.

Making the “Zeitenwende” Real

Nowhere is this delicate balancing act more visible than in security and defense. Russia’s assault on Ukraine has dealt a blow to German expectations about Europe remaining at peace for good. As long as the United States was firmly at Germany’s side, the challenge appeared manageable. However, the second Trump administration has created the perfect storm: Germany now appears squeezed between a revisionist Russia and an unpredictable United States.

Safeguarding Germany’s security in these difficult times will be among your foremost tasks. Your predecessor had announced the Zeitenwende, but since he lacked the determination to carry it through, this task will now fall to you. While you will leave the nitty-gritty, such as reforming Germany’s cumbersome defense procurement process, to your defense minister, it is imperative that you are seen as taking a personal interest in security and defense. In short, you must do what Angela Merkel never wanted to do: make German security policy a top priority, or Chefsache.

This is easier said than done. Enhancing Germany’s military clout requires a certain expertise that will be hard to find within your own party. Nor will advancing placebo-solutions like setting up a national security council make much of a difference. And although you profess to be an Atlanticist, your publicly displayed disappointment regarding the Trump administration and your widely quoted clarion call for “independence” from the United States shows that your own views about the future of German security are still quite hazy. Indeed, by shooting from the hip, you may end up shooting yourself in the foot! Still, the need for getting the German armed forces back into shape is undisputed. After all, it is the prerequisite for a stronger NATO and a stronger EU.

Increasing the Defense Budget

Everyone agrees that European defense spending levels have been too low for too long and that a substantial increase has become inevitable. Your predecessor jump-started this process with an additional special fund (Sondervermögen) of 100 billion euros but hesitated to support a significantly higher regular defense budget. Fortunately, you have now managed to cut this Gordian knot. Your gamble to have the old parliament agree to another huge Sondervermögen before the new parliament will no longer provide you with a large enough majority to do so has paid off. On defense, you can now take on additional debt for anything above one percent of GDP, which could mean hundreds of billions of extra euros. True, that entire maneuver ran counter to your convictions regarding fiscal discipline, yet you bought yourself a lot of political clout.

Of course, more money alone will not solve the Bundeswehr’s problems. The armed forces could not quickly absorb a massive surge in defense spending, nor could the defense industry step up its production in the short term. But you have proven that Germany is no longer the laggard when it comes to defense.

Managing the Return of Conscription

You will also need to address the Bundeswehr’s second major challenge: personnel. Your answer to that problem is clear: to bring back conscription. In principle, this could solve the Bundeswehr’s chronic manpower shortage, as relying exclusively on volunteers has proven impossible. However, since the reintroduction of conscription is only feasible in the broader context of a general duty for young women and men to serve (allgemeine Dienstpflicht), there are many pitfalls. The Bundeswehr’s infrastructure for employing conscripts has long disappeared and would have to be re-created at considerable cost. The younger generation is not enthusiastic about spending a year or so in the military or in equivalent civilian functions. And the Constitutional Court may rule that introducing an allgemeine Dienstpflicht in order to obtain, at least initially, a rather small number of required conscripts is vastly disproportional and thus unconstitutional.

For all these reasons, you had to give in to your coalition partner’s ideas of a “voluntary” solution akin to the Swedish model, based on a questionnaire to inquire about young people’s willingness to serve. This does not make a return of conscription impossible, in particular as the voluntary approach it is not likely to generate the desired personnel. However, the price of bringing back conscription—financially and politically—will be far higher than some nostalgics in your party may have believed.

Balancing Transatlantic and European Defense

Your election victory occurred around the time when U.S. Vice President Vance criticized Europe for its lack of democratic freedoms, Elon Musk promoted the right-wing party AfD as Germany’s “only hope,” and President Trump appeared willing to throw Ukraine under the bus in order to become a contender for the Nobel Peace Prize. For an Atlanticist like you, the thought of the United States eventually turning its back on Europe must be utterly depressing.

However, the second Trump chapter has only just begun, and the jury is still out on whether the U.S. president can write this chapter as he sees fit. As for Germany, one doesn’t cancel one’s lease just because one expects the landlord to soon cancel it anyway. Hence, you must seek to maintain a civilized dialogue with your U.S. counterparts.

Clearly, given the unpredictability of the current U.S. administration, Germany also needs a “Plan B,” a more determined effort to turn Europe into a more cohesive strategic actor. Your challenge will be to articulate the rationale for this and reassure Europeans and Americans alike that it is not about competition but broadening the West’s military toolbox.

For all these reasons, you should demonstrate your openness to European armaments cooperation or joint procurement. Just don’t get carried away. Some are already trying to groom you as the champion (Hoffnungsträger) of a truly “autonomous” Europe, but while the French may applaud you, the Brits and the Poles will not. And even if the European defense industry will seek to convince you to “buy European,” do not go down the rabbit hole of making armaments deals for any reason other than enhancing the fighting power of the armed forces. In the current environment, the Bundeswehr needs the best equipment, wherever it comes from.

Navigating the Nuclear Dossier

For years, “German Angst” referred to fears of nuclear weapons. Today, the Germans worry that the United States might fold its proverbial nuclear umbrella and leave Europe defenseless. While the prospect of the United States withdrawing its nuclear protection remains extremely unlikely, you nevertheless will need to explore alternative options. A nuclear dialogue between Berlin and Paris now looks unavoidable, and the French may even offer something that, with some imagination and goodwill, could be interpreted as an extended nuclear deterrence promise.

However, let’s be clear that the French will ask for some favors in return. Notoriously cash-strapped, Paris will try to make Berlin not only contribute to the financing of its force de frappe; it will also seek to lure you into armaments projects that will be led by France, while Germany is expected to foot the larger share of the bill. It will require considerable steadfastness to withstand these siren songs—and some in your party are prone to falling for them.

Bringing Peace to Ukraine

Thus far, the Trump administration’s attempts to strike a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine have not been too encouraging. Still, these efforts deserve European support. Britain and France have understood that Europe cannot afford to stand idly by and are discussing options to play their part in an eventual deal’s military implementation. Your predecessor has brushed aside such activism as premature, but you cannot afford to perpetuate his indifference.

Implementing a deal that preserves the security and integrity of the free part of Ukraine will be tough, but Germany is too much affected by developments in and around Ukraine to take a back seat. Besides, a lasting peace would spare you the decision to deliver the controversial Taurus cruise missile—a decision that you always claimed you would take, while secretly hoping that you never would have to.

Conclusion: Multi-Tasking Required

These key challenges in defense and security are formidable, and you will need to tackle them while at the same time taking care of other pressing issues, such as bringing down energy prices, cutting Germany’s excessive bureaucracy, and creating a political framework that is more conducive for investments.

Ignore those who have scoffed that you never held a government post. You now have the chance to prove the skeptics wrong. After all, you are a golfer. And a relaxed round of golf with President Trump in Mar-a-Lago could advance Germany’s cause more than any formal Summit meeting. Just make sure you let him win.

The author worked over 30 years in NATO’s International Staff, including in policy planning and speechwriting, energy and climate security, and hybrid threats. He thanks Steffen Sachs for comments and suggestions. A longer version has been published in the Italian journal Limes.